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key newsmaker last week was existing real estate sales,
which saw an easing in December, but ended the year at their highest point
in five years in terms of total sales and annual price increase, according
to data released last week by the National Association of Realtors.
Total sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and
co-ops, ticked down 1 percent in December to an annual rate of 4.94
million, compared to 4.99 million in November. That said, they were 12.8
percent above the 4.38 million-unit level in December 2011.
NAR's preliminary annual total for existing-home sales for 2012 was 4.65
million, up 9.2 percent from 4.26 million in 2011. This ranked as the
highest volume since 2007 when total sales reached 5.03 million, and also the
strongest increase since 2004.
In terms of price, December's median existing-home price for all housing
types was $180,800, which is 11.5 percent above December 2011. December's
price marked the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, which
last occurred from August 2005 to May 2006, and was the strongest increase
since November 2005, which saw a 12.9 percent gain.
Distressed homes, such as foreclosures and short sales, comprised 24
percent of December's sales up from 22 percent in November, but below 32
percent in December 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 17
percent below market value in December, while short sales were discounted
16 percent.
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 8.5 percent from
November to 1.82 million existing homes available for sale, which
represented a 4.4-month supply at December's sales pace. This was the
lowest housing supply since May 2005's 4.3-month supply, which was near the
peak of the housing boom.
Looking at new real estate, sales of new single-family homes in December
2012 dipped to an annual rate of 369,000, the Census Bureau and the
Department of Housing and Urban Development reported last week. December's
sales were 7.3 percent below November's revised rate of 398,000, but were
8.8 percent over December 2011's estimate of 339,000.
In terms of price, the median sales price of new houses sold in December
2012 was $248,900 and the average sales price was $304,000. In terms of
inventory, the estimate of new homes for sale at the end of December was
151,000, which represented a supply of 4.9 months at December's sales rate.
In terms of overall annual volume, an estimated 367,000 new homes were sold
in 2012, which was a reassuring 19.9 percent over 2011's total of 306,000.
Turning to employment news, the number of first-time claims for jobless
benefits filed in the week ending Jan 19 dipped slightly to 330,000, a
decline of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 335,000, the
Employment and Training Administration reported last week. The four-week
moving average was 351,750, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's
revised average of 360,000.
The total number of insured unemployed during the week ending Jan. 12
dropped to 3,157,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week's
revised level of 3,228,000. The four-week moving average was 3,197,500, a
decrease of 12,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,209,750.
As a broad economic overview, the Conference Board reported last week that
its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.5 percent in December
to 93.9 (a baseline of 100 was set in 2004), following no change in
November, and a 0.3 percent increase in October. The LEI tracks various
economic metrics, such as new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average
workweek, building permits, and stock prices.
This week, we can expect:
- Monday
— Durable goods orders for December from the Census Bureau.
- Tuesday
— Consumer confidence scores for January from The Conference Board.
- Wednesday
— Advanced gross domestic product scores for the Fourth Quarter 2012
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Thursday
— Initial jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 26 from the
Employment and Training Administration; December personal incomes and
spending from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Friday
— January payrolls, earnings, workweek and unemployment rate from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Consumer sentiment scores for January from
the University of Michigan; December construction spending totals from
the Census Bureau; January car and truck sales from the auto manufacturers.
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