Are All Pieces in Place?We think not. Car sales are the strongest we have seen in five years and American household formulation has also increased to a point not seen in....you guessed it, five years. Even states and local governments have started hiring again with this sector expected to add jobs for the first time in several years. We are not saying that there are not potential roadblocks. Even if the Federal budget negotiations are resolved, a solution will translate into a shrinking Federal workforce. The European debt crisis is far from over and there are many homes in the "shadow inventory" awaiting foreclosure. Yet, for the first time in five years we can say that the positives outweigh the negatives as we gear up for 2013. As we approach the first major data of 2013 in the form of the January employment report, we are hoping that consumers and businesses feel exactly the same way in this regard.
Americans are feeling increasingly confident in the future and more and more are striking out to set up their own homes, a move that is helping propel the housing recovery. The deep financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009 kept many Americans from leaving their parents' nests and drove others back into them, putting a sharp brake on the pace at which new households formed. Household growth averaged about 500,000 per year from 2008 through 2010 - less than half the rate seen at the height of the housing boom in the years just before that. The pace in 2010 was the weakest since 1947. But the rate at which individuals or families are getting their own homes picked up over the past two years, underpinned by a steady if tepid economic recovery and gradual labor market gains. In 2011, households increased 1.1 million and they grew closer to 1.2 million last year. "The rise in household formation bodes well for the housing recovery. Instead of having too many houses, we are turning to a situation where there aren't enough," said Guy Berger a U.S. economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. Indeed, housing has turned from the economy's sorest spot to its brightest, with new building activity at 4-1/2-year highs. The gains are being felt primarily in the rental market, where rising demand has spurred a sharp pick up in construction of apartment buildings. "We are going to see more recovery in the rental market, in the very short run. As the market improves, people will start to face higher rents and over time, that will spill over into the owner-occupied market," said Gary Painter, a public policy professor at the University of Southern California. Source: ReutersThe Federal Housing Administration has announced that they will charge new borrowers higher annual mortgage insurance premiums and stop allowing borrowers to cancel their annual insurance premium payments when their loan balance drops to 78 percent of the property value. The agency is making a number of changes to its programs in an attempt to boost revenue flows and reduce losses --- including requiring a higher down payment on higher loan amounts. In an interview, David Stevens, chief executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association and former commissioner of the FHA, said the agency should consider some basic "qualification standards" -- i.e. reverse loan applicants should have sufficient income and assets to ensure they do not blow through their initial lump-sum drawdowns and have nothing left to pay taxes and insurance. Source: Ken Harney, The Nation's Housing
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With 11 months of data reported, 2012 will go down as a record year for favorable housing affordability conditions, and a great year for buyers who could get a home loan, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR’s national Housing Affordability Index stood at 198.2 in November, based on the relationship between median home price, median family income and average interest rate. The higher the index, the greater the household purchasing power; record keeping began in 1970. An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and 25 percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and interest payments. For first-time buyers making small down payments, the affordability levels are relatively lower. For all of 2012, NAR projects the housing affordability index to be a record high 194, up from 186 in 2011, which was the previous record. November’s reading was 2.5 index points below October, but up 1.5 index points from a year earlier. NAR projects the housing affordability index to average 160 during 2013, which means on a national basis that a median-income family would have 160 percent of the income needed to purchase a median-priced existing single-family home. Conditions vary widely, with the highest buying power in the Midwest. Even in the West, where the regional index is lower, they typical family is well positioned in most markets. Source: National Association of Realtors
Someone Moved The Cliff
Homeowners fare well in the fiscal cliff deal passed by the Senate and House on Jan. 1. The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 apparently extends a law that expired at the end of 2011, which allowed for the deductibility of mortgage insurance (MI) premiums, according to a research report from Isaac Boltansky with Compass Point Research & Trading. The law now applies to fiscal years 2012 and 2013. "The law dictates that eligible borrowers who itemize their federal tax returns and have an adjusted gross income (AGI) of less than $100,000 per year can deduct 100% of their annual MI premiums," Compass Point said. "Certain borrowers with AGIs above $100,000 may benefit from the deductibility as well but are subject to a sliding scale. The tax break covers private MI as well FHA MI and VA and Rural Housing Service fees. In 2009, about 3.6 million taxpayers claimed the MI deduction," the research firm added.


In an effort to make up for a large budget shortfall, the Federal Housing Administration announced it will publish new standards for certain home owners and replace a popular reverse-mortgage program on Jan. 31, 2013. As among the changes, borrowers with credit scores between 580 and 620 will face stricter underwriting standards. Such borrowers will face stricter limits on their debt-to-income ratio. The FHA also will soon require a minimum down payment of 5 percent for high-cost loans that exceed $625,500. FHA also plans to suspend its popular reverse-mortgage option, which allows those 62 years and older to take cash out of their homes in a big, upfront payment, The Wall Street Journal reports. FHA will be replacing it with the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage saver, which offers lower cash payments than the large upfront payment of the other program. The changes are part of an effort to make up for a $16.3 billion deficit FHA faces. The FHA reverse program alone accounts for $2.8 billion of those losses. Last month, the FHA also announced it would increase insurance premiums. Source: The Wall Street Journal Those who act quickly can beat the timing of these FHA changes. Contact us for information on getting the process started and find out if there are alternatives that will help you purchase or refinance without using the FHA program.