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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Real Estate Report February 27, 2013



 




Sequestration

Only in America would we desecrate the English language to find a word to describe what our government is up to. Yes, March 1 is the official sequestration date. But don't expect the government to declare the next Federal Holiday to be "Sequestration Day." Here are a couple of points about this word. First of all, the word sequestration means confiscation or seizure of assets. No one is proposing a seizure of assets here. What we are talking about is automatic and severe budget cuts. In this case we will defer to the Congressional Research Service which has rewritten the dictionary to expand the definition to mean... the permanent cancellation of budgetary resources by a uniform percentage. Moreover, this uniform percentage reduction is applied to all programs, projects, and activities within a budget account.

Okay, now that we know what it means, the questions that follow are... will it happen and if it does happen, what affect may it have upon our lives and especially the economy? There have been many articles written regarding what could happen if the budget is cut by approximately 10% overnight. These cuts include all discretionary spending from jobless benefits to food inspections to defense. Not all cuts would happen immediately. For example, if there are furloughs of Federal workers, we have read that the furloughs may take 30 days or more to implement. That gives Congress and the Administration more time to come up with a solution. And you know what they do when they have extra time? Usually nothing. There is no doubt that dropping hundreds of millions of dollars out of the budget will take some steam out of the economy this year. This could lead to lower rates and oil prices. We just don't think that the cuts will be allowed to take hold all year. With a compromise of some kind, there will be some cuts, but how much remains to be seen.





The economic downturn that ended a few years ago may have soured many consumers on making significant financial decisions. But as the effects of the recession fade, many may be more interested in homeownership. That seems particularly true of younger consumers who may not have been in a position to buy years ago. Today, the vast majority of consumers between the ages of 25 and 44, comprising both millennials and those in Generation X, say that homeownership is at least somewhat important to them, according to a new survey from Prudential Real Estate. In all, 96 percent of all consumers feel this way. But 77 percent of those aged 25 to 34, and 78 percent of people between 35 and 44, say it's "very important." Further, 74 percent say that the current levels of affordability lent by historically low interest rates mean that now is a great time for them to buy a home. "Millennials and Generation X -- about 85 million people strong -- face a unique opportunity in U.S. housing," said Earl Lee, chief executive officer at HSF Affiliates LLC and president of Prudential Real Estate. "They are generally optimistic about homeownership and, by nature, share a strong sense of community. As important, many were not impacted by the real estate downturn and are looking at today's buying opportunities with keen interest." In addition, 63 percent of those polled say they currently have a favorable view of the real estate market in general, and those in the younger generations were typically more enthusiastic about it than their older counterparts, the report said. Source: AOL Real Estate

A large majority of people in that field plan to buy as many or more properties in the next 12 months to rent out or sell for profit. That’s one of the findings of a study released recently that attempted to measure the impact people involved in income or speculative real estate are having on the housing market. The survey, sponsored by BiggerPockets.com, the nation’s leading social Web site for real estate investors, and Memphis Invest, one of the largest providers of single-family rentals — shows that 65 percent of investors plan to buy a lot more homes during the next 12 months. The report points out that investors played a fairly substantial role in the housing recovery. The housing crisis pushed nearly 4 million foreclosures onto the open market, devastating home values. This and the coinciding financial crisis squashed homebuyers’ confidence and their ability to buy. At that time, real estate investors began buying up the foreclosures when few other people could enter the market. They bought up so many properties that they established single-family rentals as a $100 billion business. In fact, the report says that single-family rentals now outnumber apartment units. They are also renovating the homes they buy and spending an average of $7,500 per home. That totals more than $9.2 billion every year in construction-related spending, according to the report. This is critical business for an industry that was hit hard by the recession. In 2008, Congress approved the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to provide funds to municipalities and not-for-profit organizations to repair damage to foreclosed homes. Up to this point, they have spent a total of $7 billion of tax payer money. Real estate investors are doing more than this every year with their own money or money that they borrow. Surprisingly, the report finds that only one in four real estate investors are cash buyers. In fact, slightly more than half make down payments and finance the rest of the purchase amount. Source: The Washington Post

Consumers need to be extra vigilant about checking for any errors on their credit reports, according to the Federal Trade Commission. One in four Americans report they’ve found an error on their credit report, according to a study conducted by the FTC, which analyzed 1,001 consumers’ credit reports from the three major agencies, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. Researchers helped the consumers spot potential errors on their reports. Five percent of the consumers found such large errors on their report that they could have gotten stuck paying more for home loans or other financial products, if they hadn’t taken steps to correct it before applying, according to the study. Twenty percent of the credit reports studied that were found to have errors in it were ultimately corrected after the consumer took steps to dispute it, which resulted in about 10 percent of consumers receiving a higher credit score, according to the study. Consumers are entitled to receive a free copy of their credit report each year from the three reporting agencies. Source: The Associated Press


 

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Real Estate Report February 20, 2013

February 20, 2013



Let The Duel Begin -- Again

It has been a few weeks since the politicians have rattled their sabers at each other and therefore we are due for increased rhetoric. With the State of the Union Address and response behind us, we now approach the deadline to head off draconian budget cuts. By now the markets may be immune to deadlines set by politicians. With the negotiations regarding the fiscal cliff fizzling out and the big fight focused upon raising the debt limit postponed quietly, many are again expecting the same result. We know that Congress may surprise us and the surprise could go in two directions. The first direction would result in both parties digging in their heels as the budget cuts go into effect. The second direction would be actual negotiations to attack the deficit with a balanced plan that would result in more reasonable cuts and a long-term budget plan.

In reality, most market observers are expecting more action to kick the can down the road -- again. Meanwhile, we are closing in on another employment report as we start to get more readings as to the state of the economy in 2013. This data will follow readings on the real estate market to be released this week. There was a lot of optimism during January as the stock market roared and interest rates and oil prices climbed. This trend only continues if real estate continues to gain momentum and we continue to create jobs at a pace to bring down the stubborn unemployment rate. As we have contended previously, the rebound in real estate is a requirement of increased job creation. The numbers released last week show that Europe's recession is actually deepening. This means that it is imperative for the United States to be building momentum that will help lift the rest of the world. As the world's largest economy, we led the world into recession some five years ago. Now we need to show leadership in recovery.
Underwater borrowers who have stayed current with their housing payments now may be able to give up their properties and get their debts erased, according to new guidelines issued by housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-delinquent borrowers who have Fannie and Freddie-backed loans and who can document a hardship, such as an illness, job change, or other situation that requires they must move can apply for a deed-in-lieu transaction. Eligible borrowers also must have a 55 percent debt-to-income ratio. Servicers will be required to confirm that the property has been left in good condition. Borrowers who are eligible will have the debt remaining between the property’s value and size of home loan erased. “The goal is to make sure people who have suffered a hardship have the appropriate options to prevent foreclosure,” says Andrew Wilson, spokesman for Fannie Mae. Borrowers may still be required some repayment, however, if the borrower has the means to do so. “Home owners applying for deed-in-lieu transactions may be asked to make cash contributions of up to 20 percent of their financial reserves, excluding retirement accounts,” Bloomberg reports about the guidelines. “Or, they may be asked to sign a promissory note for future no-interest repayments. The amount and terms can be negotiated.” Fannie and Freddie’s new eligibility for deed-in-lieu of transactions has been met with some criticism, particularly at a time with the government-sponsored enterprises are still underwater themselves from steep losses the last few years. But some argue that past programs tended to penalize borrowers on the brink of foreclosure who kept making their payments, says Julia Gordon, director of housing finance and policy at the Center for American Progress. Mortgage servicers in some cases were even advising borrowers to stop making their housing payment so that they could qualify for more assistance. “Fannie and Freddie are finally recognizing that some people are stuck in their homes,” Gordon told Bloomberg. “There are a lot of families who need to move who can’t do it if they’re going to have debt hanging over their heads. There’s no winner when someone is forced to default on their home loan -- not the investor, not the home owner, and certainly not the neighborhood.” Source: Bloomberg
Freddie Mac's fourth quarter refinance analysis showing homeowners who refinance continue to strengthen their fiscal house, as 84 percent of homeowners who refinanced their first-lien home loan either maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying-in additional money at the closing table; just shy of the record 85 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011. Of these borrowers, 46 percent maintained about the same loan amount, and 39 percent of refinancing homeowners reduced their principal balance. "On average, borrowers who refinanced reduced their interest rate by about 1.8 percentage points, mark not seen for 27 years," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $3,600 in interest during the next 12 months. Fixed-rate rates on home loan hit new lows during December, with 30-year product averaging 3.4 percent and 15-year averaging 2.7 percent that month, according to our Primary Mortgage Market Survey." Source: Freddie Mac

If you’re one of the millions of homeowners and renters who work or run a business from the place you live, here’s some good news on taxes: The Internal Revenue Service wants to make it easier for you to file for deductions on the business-related use of your home. Rather than the complicated 43-line form you now have to fill out to claim a write-off — the instructions alone take up four pages of text and involve computations ranging from depreciation to utility bill expense allocations — the IRS has come up with a much simpler option: what it calls a “safe harbor” method that allows you to measure the square footage of your business space and apply for a deduction. The move comes at a time when the use of homes for work is soaring, thanks to technologies such as high-speed Internet and Skype. Last October, the Census Bureau estimated that as of 2010, 13.4 million Americans were making some type of business use of their homes and that home businesses employed nearly 10 percent of all workers. During the same year, the IRS says 3.4 million taxpayers filed for the home office deduction. Kristie Arslan, president and chief executive of the National Association for the Self-Employed, says, that the IRS rules for home offices have been “cumbersome and time-consuming. They also worried that they could be exposed to an audit by the IRS if they made mistakes in filing." The new IRS option, which will be available for 2013 and beyond, allows owners and employees who work from home to deduct $5 per square foot of home office space per year, up to a maximum allowable space of 300 square feet. The write-off is capped at $1,500 per year, but the hassle factor is negligible. Here’s how it works. The Internal Revenue Code permits you to deduct expenses for a home office that is used “exclusively” and on a “regular basis” as your principal place of business “for any trade or business,” or as a place to meet with clients or customers. Provided you qualify on these threshold tests, the code allows you to deduct home loan interest, property taxes, rent, utilities, hazard insurance and other expenses based on the percentage of the total space of the home that is attributable to your business use. Though this method can produce sizable deductions, critics have long argued that the computations for some of the allowable items — depreciation on the house you own is one — can be tricky and require significant record-keeping and time expenditures to get it exactly right. In addition, the IRS has acknowledged that the presence of a home office deduction on a taxpayer’s filing may increase that taxpayer’s potential for being selected for audit. The new streamlined approach essentially boils everything down to just one measurement: How much square footage that qualifies for business-purpose treatment are you using? Multiply that number by $5 per square foot and you’ve got your deduction amount. As long as this does not exceed $1,500, you can use the new short form write-off. If the total is more than $1,500, you can use the more complicated option. Source: Ken Harney, The National Housing

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