Thursday, October 31, 2013
Monday, October 21, 2013
"Monster Bash"
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
The Real Estate Report 10/16/2013
The Employment Report that Wasn't...
This week in the month we usually present an analysis of the monthly employment data. Only last week the report was not released because of the government shutdown. And if it was released, we really couldn't trust the numbers because the report itself would not reflect the damage that was done during the government shutdown. The employment data covers September and the shutdown began October 1. As a matter of fact, it will be some time before we see how the period of the shutdown really influences the economy. Even the thought of the end of the shutdown brought cheer to the stock market last week. And while we could very well see interest rates and oil prices head back up after a real deal is solidified -- these moves could be short lived because of the unknowns regarding the long-term effects of the shutdown upon the economy.
With the approximate date of the debt ceiling limit approaching, we write this column confident of at least a last minute short-term deal coming to fruition this week. Beyond that, the shutdown of government will serve as a good test of the strength of the recovery. This year the stock market has soared and rates have risen in response to the fact that we were no longer threatened with a double dip recession. The shutdown is a reminder that intervening variables -- both positive and negative -- have a way of telling us that all bets are off the table. You just can't predict the future when it comes down to variables that you can't foresee. And so it will go with the reaction of the economy to the shutdown. Perhaps we will be resilient and bounce right back. Or perhaps this shutdown will wind up slowing the economy down for awhile. Only time will tell us and hopefully there will not be additional intervening variables in the meantime.
According to the Wall Street Journal, rising home-buying costs are pushing people into apartments, causing landlords to pass along hefty rent increases this summer. The average monthly rent in the third quarter was $1,073, up 1% from the prior quarter, the largest quarterly gain in a year, according to a report to be released Tuesday by Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm. Compared with the third quarter a year ago, average monthly rent was up 3%. None of the 79 markets tracked by Reis saw rents fall. Source: The WSJ
The Appraisal Institute advised homeowners to use discretion when deciding which home improvement projects to take on, saying that not all renovations positively impact property values. “Projects that take a home significantly beyond community norms are often not worth the cost when the owner sells the home,” said Appraisal Institute president Richard L. Borges II, MAI, SRA. “If they don’t match what’s standard in a community, they’ll be considered excessive.” According to Remodeling magazine’s most recent Cost vs. Value report, some of the projects with the highest expected return on investment are siding replacement, entry door replacement, attic bedroom addition, minor kitchen remodel and garage door replacement. Other renovations with high expected pay-offs include basement remodel, deck addition and window replacement. Borges advised homeowners that it may be best to hold off on big renovations if a homeowner isn’t sure how long they will be in their home. The longer a homeowner stays in a property, the greater the opportunity for a return on investment, he said. “Consumers should be aware that cost does not necessarily equal value,” Borges added. For an unbiased analysis of what their home would be worth both before and after an improvement project, a homeowner can work with a professional real estate appraiser – such as a designated member of the Appraisal Institute – to conduct a feasibility study. During a feasibility study, the appraiser will analyze the homeowner’s property, weigh the cost of rehabilitation and provide an estimate of the property's value before and after the improvement. Some green and energy-efficient renovations, such as adding Energy Star appliances and extra insulation, are likely to pay the homeowner back in lowered utility bills relatively quickly. Lower utility costs also are a draw for potential homebuyers. When appraising a home, the appraiser evaluates local supply and demand for green and energy-efficient properties and features. Source: NMP Daily
Fifty-five percent of Americans say they expect home values to rise over the next 12 months, further showing that consumers are becoming less fearful about jumping back into the real estate game, according to Bankrate’s latest monthly Financial Security Index. Nine percent of Americans say they think prices will fall, and 27 percent believe values will stay flat. "It appears that Americans' love affair with real estate is back," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com. "Even though the housing bust shows that housing prices don't just go straight up, people just don't have the same risk aversion to real estate and home ownership that they do to stock ownership." Bankrate’s July index showed that Americans prefer real estate over stocks as a way to invest money they don’t need for 10 years. The decrease in foreclosures and still-low rates have been two factors helping home values to recover, says William Delwiche, an investment strategist for Robert W. Baird & Co. "We got past that wave of the foreclosure crisis and banks trying to dump all their homes on the market," Delwiche says. "Lower rates have had an undeniably positive effect on not just household balance sheets, but also the housing market generally. It makes it much easier to buy a house if you're so inclined." Source: Bankrate.com
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Real Estate Report 10/10/2013
The
housing recovery goes deeper than just an improvement in home prices, with
single-family home construction contributing approximately 500,000 jobs to the
economy year-over-year, Regional Economic Models Inc. said in a press release.
Additionally, the net gain in jobs accounts for a quarter of the approximately
2 million jobs added to the economy from July 2012 to July 2013. Furthermore,
the biggest net growth occurred in Texas, with 59,600 jobs, and Florida, with
54,000 jobs, and California, with 30,200 jobs. “Construction of new homes is a
major driver of our economy at the national and state levels,” said Frederick
Treyz, CEO and Chief Economist of REMI. “We estimate that for every new house
constructed, between four and five new jobs on average are created,” he added. Source: HousingWire
The number of new foreclosure filings in August hit its lowest level in nearly eight years, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. Soaring home prices and a big decline in underwater borrowers -- those who owe more on their home loans than their homes are worth -- have helped drive the trend. August initial foreclosure filings fell 44% to 55,575, just below the 56,063 that were recorded in October 2005. The foreclosure crunch began in summer 2006, at about the same time that housing prices hit their peak. "This is a strong indicator that the crisis is over," said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. "The foreclosure floodwaters have receded in most parts of the country, although lenders and communities continue to clean up the damage left behind," he added. The mopping-up process continues, however. In August, for example, the number of homes repossessed by lenders rose 6%, compared with July, to 39,277. But that still represents a drop of 25% year-over-year, and is more than 60% below the peak of repossessions in September, 2010. Source: CNN/Money
The proportion of investors involved in the housing market has fallen in the last few months. As their numbers dwindle, it may allow other buyers to step in, according to housing experts. Investors have gone from accounting for 23 percent of home purchases in February to about 20 percent in June—the lowest level since September 2012, according to data from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance survey. Their numbers will likely decrease even more in the coming year. About 48 percent of investors recently surveyed say they plan to lessen their home purchases over the next year, according to a recent survey by ORC International. Only 20 percent of the investors surveyed say they plan to buy more homes in the next year, a drop from 39 percent 10 months earlier. "Investors helped stabilize a housing market that was in free-fall and they did so by taking advantage of fire-sale home prices," says Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. "Now you see fewer bargain prices in the market and that's a reason investor demand is coming off its peak." In recent years, many buyers—particularly first-time home buyers—may have lost out to investors’ all-cash offers on homes. Banks and sellers may have been lured by the idea of a quick deal that cash offers typically provide over offers from buyers who require financing. But with less competition from investors, some housing experts say this may allow an opportunity for other potential buyers to get into the market. Source: Reuters
The number of new foreclosure filings in August hit its lowest level in nearly eight years, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. Soaring home prices and a big decline in underwater borrowers -- those who owe more on their home loans than their homes are worth -- have helped drive the trend. August initial foreclosure filings fell 44% to 55,575, just below the 56,063 that were recorded in October 2005. The foreclosure crunch began in summer 2006, at about the same time that housing prices hit their peak. "This is a strong indicator that the crisis is over," said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. "The foreclosure floodwaters have receded in most parts of the country, although lenders and communities continue to clean up the damage left behind," he added. The mopping-up process continues, however. In August, for example, the number of homes repossessed by lenders rose 6%, compared with July, to 39,277. But that still represents a drop of 25% year-over-year, and is more than 60% below the peak of repossessions in September, 2010. Source: CNN/Money
The proportion of investors involved in the housing market has fallen in the last few months. As their numbers dwindle, it may allow other buyers to step in, according to housing experts. Investors have gone from accounting for 23 percent of home purchases in February to about 20 percent in June—the lowest level since September 2012, according to data from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance survey. Their numbers will likely decrease even more in the coming year. About 48 percent of investors recently surveyed say they plan to lessen their home purchases over the next year, according to a recent survey by ORC International. Only 20 percent of the investors surveyed say they plan to buy more homes in the next year, a drop from 39 percent 10 months earlier. "Investors helped stabilize a housing market that was in free-fall and they did so by taking advantage of fire-sale home prices," says Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. "Now you see fewer bargain prices in the market and that's a reason investor demand is coming off its peak." In recent years, many buyers—particularly first-time home buyers—may have lost out to investors’ all-cash offers on homes. Banks and sellers may have been lured by the idea of a quick deal that cash offers typically provide over offers from buyers who require financing. But with less competition from investors, some housing experts say this may allow an opportunity for other potential buyers to get into the market. Source: Reuters
Thursday, October 3, 2013
The Real Estate Report 10/3/2013
Thank You Congress
Once again, the United States Congress has warded off a major threat to the economy. For the past several months interest rates have been rising in response to the threat of the Federal Reserve Board starting to end one element of their stimulus program. For the past several years, the Fed has implemented an unprecedented program to bring down long-term interest rates by purchasing Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities. Typically in response to a recession, the Fed lowers short-term borrowing rates but the recession of 2008 was so deep that they had to resort to extreme measures. For one thing, the secondary markets for home loans collapsed and without this targeted stimulus we would have been trying to overcome the subsequent foreclosure crisis within the real estate markets with financing for real estate at higher rates and more difficult to obtain.
Fast forward five years and we can see that the real estate markets are recovering from the crisis. The Federal Reserve Board has shown that they are now ready to ease off the pedal and the bond markets are reacting accordingly. Up steps Congress. When the Federal Reserve Board met two weeks ago, they were considering announcing the first step. But they hesitated. Why? The Fed felt at this point the economy is just not strong enough to take this first step, however small. And they did cite at least one threat to the economic recovery. What was that? A possible government shutdown because it appears Congress will go down to the wire with regard to the deadline to raise the debt limit. Simply stated, if we can't borrow money, we can't fund the government. We understand that Congress is likely to resolve or at least put off the disagreement. But that is not the point. By putting off the decision until the last minute once again they have again created an artificial threat that has caused rates to ease at least temporarily. Thanks, Congress! Meanwhile, this week the employment report will give us an important reading as to whether the Fed should have acted. A strong reading could cause rates to continue their climb while a weak reading could keep us where we are for now -- or even trend lower.
Trulia has released its Summer 2013 Rent vs. Buy Report, revealing whether buying a home is more affordable than renting in America’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. Looking at homes for sale and for rent on Trulia between June 1 and Aug.31, 2013, this study compares the average cost of renting and owning for all homes on the market in a metro area, factoring in all cost components including transaction costs, taxes, and opportunity costs. In the last year, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose from 3.75 percent to 4.80 percent, raising the cost of buying a home relative to renting. Homeownership is now 35 percent cheaper than renting nationally, down from being 45 percent cheaper one year ago. “While it’s hard to believe after the recent spike in rates, it’s still more than one-third cheaper to buy a home than to rent,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist. “Recent rate and home price increases have made buying significantly more expensive than last year, but not enough to tip the math in favor of renting. This is because rates remain well below historical norms, and prices are still slightly undervalued, too.” Source: NAMP Daily
Sales of new single-family homes bounced back in August, helping to offset a large decrease in July after borrowers pulled back from higher rates, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New-home sales rose 7.9 percent in August following July's 14.1 percent decline, a sign that higher interest rates haven't put a long-lasting damper on home-buying activity, says Rick Judson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. "Consumers are adjusting to the reality of today's higher rates following a period of record-setting lows, and today's sales report provides evidence of that," Judson says. "We expect to see more buyers coming back to the market as the psychological effects of the rate gains continue to wear off — particularly since, even after the recent spike, mortgage rates remain exceptionally favorable on a historic basis." August's new-home sales figure, which is at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 421, 000, is 12.6 percent higher than a year ago. But that's still only about halfway to what most economists consider a sustainable level in a normal economy, notes David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. Inventory levels rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, with the number of new homes for sale rising 3.6 percent from July. Meanwhile, NAR's Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 1.6 percent in August to 107.7. That's down from a reading of 109.4 in July, but still 5.8 percent above August 2012. An index of 100 is considered an average level of contract activity. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the drop was not unexpected. "Sharply rising interest rates in the spring motivated buyers to make purchase decisions, culminating in a six-and-a-half-year peak for sales that were finalized last month," Yun said. “Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead.” Source: The NAR and Associated Press
Home staging professionals discovered a unique way of marketing themselves in the fluctuating real estate environment by reminding home sellers that properties sell much faster after undergoing a professional facelift. The Real Estate Staging Association has the figures to back this up. In a recent study conducted by the trade association, 89 vacant occupied and un-staged homes were listed. These homes spent an average of 166 days on the market. However, when these exact same homes were professionally staged and relisted, they only spent an average of 32 days on the market — a 73% decrease in time spent on the market. "Every home can use staging,” said Shell Brodnax, CEO of RESA. "Even investors are coming in. They are buying those properties, they’re fixing the things that need to be fixed and they’re paying for staging," she added. According to Brodnax, staging is an effective tool no matter what the housing market looks like. In a slow market, staging can make a house stand out and sell. However, in a hot housing market, where things are more competitive, those properties are getting attention and often bringing in multiple offers, said Brodnax. Additional research done by the association showed that when 359 homes underwent staging before hitting the market, the homes received a first offer within 26 days after the staging. Of these homes, 69 received multiple offers. When a seller invests in staging before they list their home, the home will sell 87% faster, RESA studies proved. Brodnax noted that staging has gained momentum over the past 10 years as the market has continued to change. “It’s just really becoming more known — staging is a must,” said Brodnax. “Ten years ago, stagers were really struggling to get people to listen to them… staging now is a no brainer.” Audra Slinkey, president of Home Staging Resource, said homes that aren’t staged may still sell fairly quickly, but they may not sell for as much money as they could were they professionally staged. "Homes that are not being staged… it’s like leaving money on the table," said Slinkey. According to Slinkey, the average cost of staging is approximately 1-3% of the value of the home. However, the return on investment can be as much as 8-10% back. "It’s a small cost and work on the sell side, but it’s a win,” said Slinkey. "You improve upon a product and the demand and price goes up." Source: HousingWire
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
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